Dr. Diandra: RFK Racing by the numbers – NASCAR Discuss

Dominance — whether or not by producers, house owners or drivers — waxes and wanes with time. The racing group now often known as RFK Racing is a primary instance. So let’s take a look at RFK Racing by the numbers.

The group (then known as Roush Racing) ran its first race in 1998. It turned a NASCAR powerhouse by strategically pooling knowledge from a number of automobiles and sharing assets.

Roush stays the one group to have fielded 5 full-time Cup-level automobiles — and the one firm to put 5 automobiles within the championship playoff system.

In 2010, NASCAR restricted every proprietor to not more than 4 Cup Collection groups to stop a small variety of very massive firms from dominating the sequence.

Roush lower one automotive in 2010 to fulfill the mandate, and one other in 2011. By 2017, the corporate was fielding solely two automobiles.

Roush merged with Fenway Sports activities Group in 2007 to turn out to be Roush Fenway Racing, after which transitioned to RFK racing final 12 months when Brad Keselowski turned driver and part-owner.

Though RFK has gained 137 races and 90 poles, the graph under reveals its decline in recent times. The group hasn’t gained a race since 2017, when Ricky Stenhouse Jr. had his career-best Cup season with wins at Talladega and Daytona.

RFK in 2022

Brad Keselowski is a Cup Collection champion with 35 wins over 472 races. Chris Buescher, in his seventh full-time Cup Collection season, has one win.

The Subsequent Gen automotive was meant to reduce the benefits dominant groups had constructed up. Groups like Trackhouse Racing seized on that promise, incomes wins and top-10 finishes.

RFK’s season began out promising, with each drivers successful their Daytona Duels. Issues went downhill from there.

Keselowski has but to put up a top-5 end and has solely three high 10s. His streak of successful not less than one race every season since 2011 is in jeopardy. On a extra constructive notice, he solely has two DNFs in a 12 months with a 55.6% increase in automobiles failing to complete races.

A 100-point penalty assessed after the group modified a single-supplier half prompted a drop in Keselowski’s rating from which he has not recovered. He stands 28^th in factors.

Keselowski has been concerned in 10 caution-causing accidents and one spin, which places him fifth for many accidents, spins and stalls. These 11 incidents, nonetheless, occurred in solely seven races: He had two incidents in every of 4 completely different races.

Whereas the veteran driver has led 73 laps this season, 67 of these laps have been within the Daytona 500. He’s led solely 4 since. The group has incurred six in-race penalties and needed to begin two races from the again as a consequence of unapproved changes.

Buescher ranks 23^rd with one top-five and 6 top-10 finishes. He had 4 DNFs and missed one race as a consequence of COVID issues. His finest end this 12 months is a second at Sonoma.

Buescher has gotten extra consideration for unhealthy luck this season than for his racing. He was the primary driver to roll the Next Gen car and remained in his automotive throughout a spectacular fire on the Indianapolis street course. After the hearth was put out, Buescher drove the automotive to a Tenth-place end.

Each RFK drivers are among the many stronger closers. Keselowski has a internet achieve of 20  within the last 10% of races this season, whereas Buescher has 24.

Is pace the issue?

Even after Kevin Harvick’s win at Michigan final week, Ford has the fewest wins (5) of any producer within the Cup Collection. However RFK racing lags in pace, even amongst Fords.

The graph under compares the common beginning positions of the top-10-ranked Ford drivers. Buescher is fifth and Keselowski Tenth. Chevrolet’s Kyle Larson holds the highest spot with a mean beginning place of 9.00.

A second measure of pace is a driver’s green-flag pace rating from loop knowledge. Keselowski and Buescher have every demonstrated top-10-ranked inexperienced flag pace this 12 months.

The parenthetical numbers within the desk under point out the driving force’s rank at every monitor.Buescher ranks top-10 at eight tracks and Keselowski at three. All three of Keselowski’s finest tracks are additionally tracks the place Buescher did properly. Richmond is a kind of tracks, providing a glimmer of hope for this weekend.

On the different finish, every driver has races at which they have been out of the top-25 in green-flag pace.

Bear with me on the subsequent graph: It appears to be like advanced, however — I promise — it’s easy to unravel.

Single numbers, like averages or medians, present a restricted quantity of details about a driver’s efficiency. Boxplots consolidate details about each race a driver’s run in a season.

Right here’s the key code:

• For those who simply need the fundamentals, concentrate on the crimson traces on every bar. They characterize the driving force’s median rank over all 23 races. In half the races, the driving force ranked decrease than the median in green-flag pace, and ranked increased than the median within the different half. I’ve organized the drivers so as of median rank from finest to worst going left to proper.
• Every driver’s bar reveals the rankings for the center 50% of races — these races which might be most consultant of the driving force’s 12 months.
  • A brief bar tells you the driving force is constant. Ryan Blaney ranked between fourth and twelfth in green-flag pace in half the races this 12 months.
  • An extended bar means they’re much less constant. Buescher’s bar ranges from eight to twenty.
• The “whiskers” — the traces coming from every finish of the field — mark one of the best and worst rankings. These are one of the best and worst 50% of every driver’s races.

These inexperienced diamonds are races wherein the rating was so completely different from the driving force’s normal vary that statistics make it essential to name our consideration to it.

Ryan Blaney, for instance, had green-flag pace rankings from 1 to twenty in 22 races. The rating of 25 (at Loudon) was up to now off that we must always view it as an anomaly.

The very first thing this graph tells us about RFK is that whereas the RFK drivers aren’t main the Fords in green-flag pace, they’re additionally not on the tail finish.

• Buescher is certainly one of solely 4 Ford drivers (with Blaney, Harvick and Logano) to have ranked first in green-flag pace at a race.
• Buescher’s median green-flag pace rank is eighteen for the season, sixth amongst Ford drivers.
• Buescher’s bar extends a lot additional down than up. He has the identical variety of races wherein he ranked from 18 to 21 (3 positions) as he does 18 to eight (10 positions).

As for Keselowski:

• His median green-flag pace rank is 20, eighth out of the top-10 Ford drivers.
• His bar is brief, which suggests he’s constant. The issue is that he’s constantly ranked round 20.
• Probably the most telling side of the graph is that each one three of Keselowski’s top-10 rankings are statistical outliers. You possibly can solely see two of the three factors as a result of he ranked seventh twice.

Whereas the group has proven pace, it hasn’t been sufficient pace, or the pace hasn’t been constant.

The truth that Buescher outperforms Keselowski in most metrics isn’t actually shocking. Two of essentially the most disruptive occasions in an individual’s life are the loss of life of a liked one and a job change. The Keselowski household lost its patriarch in December 2021, and a couple of race-proven driver has struggled within the first 12 months with a brand new group.

On this 12 months of surprises, a win by Keselowski or Buescher isn’t fully out of the query — particularly if certainly one of them has the possibility to be a spoiler in Daytona.