5 issues to learn about COVID-19 as we head into fall

COVID-19 instances have surged all through the final two winters — however as we come out of summer season and temps start to drop, public well being situations not solely really feel totally different, they’re totally different, two native public well being specialists mentioned.

GBH Information spoke with Invoice Hanage, affiliate professor of epidemiology and co-director of the Middle for Communicable Illness Dynamics at Harvard’s T.H. Chan College of Public Well being, and Dr. Shira Doron, the hospital epidemiologist at Tufts Medical Middle, to grasp what the pandemic may appear like this yr because the seasons change.

“We’re in a very totally different place than we have been this time final yr,” Doron mentioned, “And a distinct planet in comparison with the place we have been two years in the past this time. And loads of that’s our layers of immunity, layers from vaccination and an infection.”

Hanage agrees issues have improved, however does add that he expects fall and winter to convey an increase in COVID infections. And he mentioned even when coming infections lead to fewer hospitalizations, he’s involved that the well being care system — having been strained over the previous two years — may nonetheless be critically burdened by any potential surge as soon as once more.

The brand new vaccines ought to supply enhanced safety in opposition to essentially the most present strains of coronavirus, together with the BA.5 variant, which accounts for round 90% of infections proper now.

Doron mentioned we don’t know simply how efficient the vaccines are at stopping an infection, however she and Hanage are assured that the brand new boosters, like earlier variations, will supply long-lasting safety in opposition to growing extreme illness if somebody is contaminated.

When requested about back-to-school, Doron mentioned masks are non-compulsory and that is OK. “The overwhelming majority of youngsters have already had COVID and subsequently have immunity, rendering the virus comparable in danger to others for which we by no means thought of masking.”

Hanage mentioned that dropping masks in faculties will lead to extra infections, however added “that is unlikely to be very consequential by way of the entire burden on well being care and complete numbers of extreme illness.”

Doron emphasised that, with masking and different precautions creating obstacles to studying, and few different public settings nonetheless requiring masks, mandating masks in faculties makes little sense.

Maybe the one factor specialists can agree on is the diploma of unpredictability with the SARS-COV-2 virus because it continues to mutate and put out new variants.

“We may even see a large surge [this winter],” Doron mentioned. “However we might have a lot immunity from Omicron — and if there is not a brand new variant that emerges and out-competes what we now have now, which is usually BA.5, we may additionally get fortunate and never see an uptick in winter.”

Hanage mentioned it’s an open query whether or not BA.5 shall be dominant in a couple of months, and he has his eye on some newer variants with mutations that increase concern.

“We have got a hell of loads of immunity from individuals who have been contaminated in addition to vaccinated,” he mentioned. “That type of hybrid immunity, we expect, produces extra sturdy safety, and is the type of factor which goes to make surges extra manageable going ahead, as a result of it’ll be extra of a problem for the virus to have the ability to infect loads of us briefly order.”

Based on Hanage, “absent a change,” a quick, ‘icepick’-style spike of instances like we noticed with Omicron final winter is “impossible — however, you realize, I’ve mentioned it to you earlier than, I by no means guess in opposition to pure choice.”

“We do not prefer to make predictions,” mentioned Doron, “as a result of there’s one factor we learn about predictions, and that is that they are going to be incorrect. This virus surprises us at each flip.”