The place does Iran stand on neighbouring Iraq’s political turmoil? | Politics Information

Tehran, Iran – Iran has a stake within the stability of its western neighbour Iraq, which has simply skilled two days of lethal violence after months of political turmoil.

Iraqi overseas minister Fuad Hussein landed in Tehran for high-level conferences early on Monday, shortly earlier than highly effective spiritual chief Muqtada al-Sadr claimed he was withdrawing from politics, main his supporters to storm authorities headquarters in Baghdad.

The fighting that ensued and went on into Tuesday between the supporters of the Sadrist motion and safety forces within the metropolis’s Inexperienced Zone left no less than 30 useless and lots of extra wounded.

Al-Sadr on Tuesday afternoon gave his supporters 60 minutes to depart the zone and apologised in a transfer that was seen by some analysts as attempting to dodge accountability, however nonetheless led to restoring a relative state of calm.

All through the 2 days of chaos, Iranian authorities remained comparatively silent in regards to the political facets, largely specializing in guaranteeing the protection and safety of 1000’s of Iranian pilgrims making the journey into Iraq by land or air for the Arbaeen gatherings.

After calm was restored, Iran’s overseas ministry in a press release on Wednesday thanked the federal government and other people of Iraq for “passing a significant sedition” by way of their persistence and tact.

Along with the subsequent spherical of Tehran’s direct negotiations with rival Saudi Arabia, which has been delayed resulting from instability in host nation Iraq, the Iraqi overseas minister additionally mentioned native politics within the Iranian capital.

“Establishing safety and stability in Iraq can solely be facilitated by way of dialogue between the entire nation’s political factions based mostly on the structure, and with the purpose of reaching consensus on forming a brand new authorities,” Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi was quoted as telling Hussein by his web site.

“Iraq’s initiatives and efforts to enhance the environment of cooperation between regional nations with out overseas intervention shall be efficient in strengthening regional convergence,” Raisi additionally stated in a jab on the US and Western presence in Iraq and throughout the area.

The Iranian president’s feedback seemingly ran counter to al-Sadr’s “revolutionary” stance, as his motion had tried to kind a “nationwide majority authorities” for almost 10 months following a win within the October 2021 parliamentary elections earlier than a mass resignation of his lawmakers.

Iran has been in favour of the consensus mechanism – based mostly on the structure – that was fashioned within the post-2003 US invasion period, however al-Sadr has at instances introduced himself as an opponent of Iranian affect in Iraq regardless of having some ties with Iran himself, having studied within the seminaries within the Iranian metropolis of Qom.

‘Political dead-end’

Iran isn’t concerned about micro-managing Iraqi politics, as a substitute prioritising any destabilisation that might jeopardise its personal nationwide safety, in keeping with Mohammad Saleh Sedghian, director of the Arabic Middle for Iranian Research.

“What issues most to Iran is that there must be stability in Iraq. The 2 have a shared 1,400km [870-mile]-long border line and have been at warfare for eight years [during the 1980s], and now no matter safety concern occurs in Iraq is in some way mirrored in Iran, whether or not good or unhealthy,” Sedghian instructed Al Jazeera.

“When the Sadrist motion occupied the Iraqi parliament constructing, Iran didn’t intervene and it doesn’t need to intervene now.”

However, no matter what Iran desires, the analyst stated al-Sadr reached a “political dead-end” on a number of fronts.

For one, Sedghian stated, the highly effective determine tried to kind an administration by allying himself with Kurdish chief Masoud Barzani and Sunni chief Mohamed Al-Halbousi, each of whom wield affect however don’t signify everything of their respective teams and other people.

This led to the pressured dissolution of the parliament, adopted by an ultimately failed effort to close down the judiciary.

One other vital blow was dealt to al-Sadr when non secular Shia chief Ayatollah Kadhim al-Haeri, who resides in Qom, on Sunday made the shock announcement that he’s stepping down as a spiritual authority resulting from well being causes.

He stated his followers ought to emulate Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme chief of Iran, as a substitute of the Shia centres within the holy Iraqi metropolis of Najaf.

Al-Haeri isn’t the best marji’ (Shia authority) in Qom or Najaf, however he had shut ties with Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Muhammad Muhammad-Sadiq al-Sadr, Muqtada’s father, who chosen him as the subsequent marji’ in his will shortly earlier than being assassinated in 1999 for opposing the rule of Saddam Hussein.

“Haeri has principally instructed al-Sadr that you just’re not a mujtahid [religious authority] and also you, due to this fact, don’t have the Sharia {qualifications} for prime political management. This was the final straw after al-Sadr’s political defeats previously few months, leaving him no alternative however to withdraw from political life,” Sedghian stated.

The analyst, nonetheless, identified that this may not be al-Sadr’s closing look as a politician as he has withdrawn and made comebacks earlier than, however predicted he shall be out for no less than 5 years as a result of severity of Monday and Tuesday’s occasions.

‘Strategic depth’

Iran and Iraq have historic, cultural and spiritual ties that make the 2 “deeply intertwined” like none different of the nations of their neighborhood, in keeping with Center East analyst and former Iranian diplomat Hadi Afghahi.

“Afghanistan can’t change Iraq for Iran, neither can Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and even Turkey – with whom we’ve got the next quantity of commerce than Iraq,” he instructed Al Jazeera.

“Particularly in conferences with high-level Iraqi officers who come to see the supreme chief, I’ve heard many instances that the supreme chief clearly states that Iraq is the strategic depth of Iran and Iran is the strategic depth of Iraq. That isn’t one thing he says evenly or about many different nations.”

In line with Afghahi, the US and Israel would quite see Iraq fragmented into Shia, Sunni and Kurdish divisions, one thing that will be to the detriment of Iraq, Iran and the area.

“The unity, territorial integrity and safety of Iraq is paramount to the Islamic Republic, and the extra steady Iraq is, the extra it would profit each nations,” he stated.

The analyst stays unconvinced that al-Sadr is quitting politics because the chief has made the announcement a number of instances earlier than, including that he views al-Sadr’s newest transfer as “emotional and psychological manoeuvring” aimed toward his followers.

“However after the current occasions within the Inexperienced Zone and the bloody combating, issues aren’t going again to the place they have been earlier than,” Afghahi stated, including that the Iran-backed Coordination Framework alliance is now in a strengthened place following the blows dealt to al-Sadr.

“I believe al-Sadr is now in a really weakened and fragile place. His feedback within the press convention on Tuesday confirmed weak point and concern in regards to the ramifications of the blood that has been shed and Iraq’s safety situation for himself and his followers,” he stated.

He stated it stays to be seen if the Coordination Framework can reinstate the parliament and kind its personal authorities, or if al-Sadr goes to intervene once more.

“All eyes at the moment are on al-Sadr, and in addition on the judiciary and parliament and [caretaker prime minister] Mustafa Al-Kadhimi to see whether or not they’ll proceed to permit al-Sadr’s Saraya al-Salam to maintain their weapons or they are going to be disarmed,” he stated.

“And we should see whether or not a possible disarming shall be carried out peacefully or create a brand new struggle itself.”