Patriots mailbag: Have Pats established an identification eight video games into season?

The New England Patriots host the Indianapolis Colts at Gillette Stadium on Sunday as they attempt to enhance to 5-4 forward of their bye week. 

However first, it is time to dive into a few of your mailbag questions. Let’s get into it…

Even eight video games into the season, it is greater than honest to have a look at this group and marvel who they’re. Simply as a reminder, here is what Belichick informed us simply earlier than the season, acknowledging that it may not be till October that he is aware of what he has in his workforce.

“I do not suppose you actually know the place your workforce is till you get to about midseason,” Belichick mentioned again in August. “Mid-October, play 5, six, seven video games, match up in opposition to some completely different groups, see for actual what your strengths and weaknesses are and your opponents as effectively.”

Now that it is November, I adopted up with him on that sentiment throughout his Wednesday presser.

“I do know much more than I knew two months in the past,” he mentioned. “For certain, yeah. After all. I study one thing each day, each week. So, we’ve got much more beneath our belt. So, maintain working to enhance issues on a regular basis. Some issues we’re doing higher. Been attacked by completely different groups in several methods. You study quite a bit from that. It is a problem each week.”

Primarily based on what he is aware of now, what are the strengths of his group this yr?

“Properly, I imply that is actually a matchup in opposition to the Colts,” he mentioned. “So how we did in opposition to any person else might or might not even be related. I do not know. Proper now, let’s simply deal with the Colts. However basically we attempt to work on issues that we have to work on that may make us higher. Schematically, identical factor. We have made some changes. Gamers, they’ve needed to make some modifications and changes,  too. All for what we predict will make us higher.”

 

Belichick mentioned that going with out Mac Jones for 3 weeks did not essentially derail the information-gathering course of he has to undergo to find out his workforce’s identification.

“There’s at all times modifications,” he defined. “We simply talked about that. There’s going to be some modifications subsequent week. Look each workforce has modifications each week. Check out the damage stories. Everyone’s bought any person on them. It is often multiple. Guys on injured reserve. Issues occur. Issues change. It is the Nationwide Soccer League.”

Subsequent Pats Podcast: Patriots simply skimming the floor on RPO package deal that would JUMPSTART Mac Jones | Listen & Subscribe | Watch on YouTube

If Jones’ damage would not influence the equation all that a lot, and if Belichick is aware of “much more” than he knew earlier than the season… What can we assume that he is aware of?

This is what we will say with some degree of conviction, primarily based on the numbers.

Offensively, they’re a curler coaster. Calling them “high-variance” might not even start to do them justice.

Among the numbers are tough. The Patriots are the league’s Twenty fourth-ranked workforce by way of offensive DVOA, they usually’re twenty fifth in relation to passing offense. No workforce within the league has turned it over extra (16).

However they’re ninth in common yards per go try, they usually throw it down the sphere greater than most groups with Jones behind heart (8.6 air yards per try, which is ninth within the NFL). All that deep work has helped make them among the many most explosive groups within the league, coming in at third within the NFL with 30 performs of 20 yards or extra. However they’re twentieth in pass-blocking effectivity, per Professional Soccer Focus, so they don’t seem to be at all times as much as the duty once they have to guard for prolonged intervals. And a few of their down-the-field go makes an attempt have resulted in game-changing interceptions.

Within the operating sport, the Patriots have an uber-talented again in Rhamondre Stevenson, however they’ve problem getting him going at instances (2.2 yards earlier than contact, forty first within the NFL) and the general outcomes have been below-average (4.3 yards per carry, twenty second). Situationally, they’re very common on third down (39.8 %, nineteenth) they usually’re one of many worst red-zone groups within the league (45.8 %, twenty ninth).

Schematically, it is arduous to get a grip on the place they stand, too. Whereas the Patriots are a game-plan workforce, as they’ve been for years, that should not preclude them from having an identification. They had been a game-plan workforce in 2007, however their identification was as a spread-it-out, down-the-field assault. They had been a game-plan workforce in 2018, however their identification finally grew to become that of a two-back, power-running workforce.

 

Now? They run some exterior zone — which they labored arduous to include this summer time — but it surely’s not a heavy ingredient of their week-to-week plan. They run some RPOs — extra final week than ever earlier than — but it surely’s not but precisely a foundational ingredient of who they’re. They run some two tight finish units, but it surely’s not what they main in. They have been reluctant, seemingly, to run a lot play-action passing with Jones behind heart. They possess a vertical passing sport, however the outcomes there have been iffy. 

In a brand new scheme beneath Belichick, Matt Patricia and Joe Decide, it nonetheless appears like they’re attempting to choose who they’re.

“I feel each week there is a completely different sport plan, which is nice,” Jones mentioned Wednesday. “That is how we have been round right here. We attempt to assault defenses. And with our protection, they attempt to assault their offense. You at all times have little belongings you need to do further or otherwise in a sure week. However, for essentially the most half, we all know what we need to do. We need to enhance on the areas the place we weren’t good, whether or not it was final week or the previous couple video games and simply enhance. Positively loads of issues to enhance on. We’ll battle to try this.”

Cassel: Three keys to unlocking Mac Jones in QB’s second season

A few of the place they lack offensively has been helped by what they will do on particular groups. The Patriots have a reliable kicker, they usually’re greatest within the league in common beginning subject place (32.1 yard line), per Soccer Outsiders. That is large for them.

However they damage themselves regularly with penalties, relative to the efficiency of their opponents, rating third-worst in internet penalty depend (-13) and seventh-worst in internet penalty yardage (-72). They’re additionally seventh within the league in pre-snap penalties.

For a workforce that has lengthy mentioned it desires to be “sensible, powerful and reliable” beneath Belichick, they’ve fallen brief so far within the season on a few these fronts offensively.

Defensively, in the meantime, though they’ve struggled in opposition to designed quarterback operating schemes — significantly obvious in losses to the Bears and Ravens — they’ve proven actual promise in key areas.

No workforce has taken the ball away greater than the Patriots (16), which has boosted their field-position numbers. They’re twelfth within the NFL in factors allowed, buoyed partly by the truth that their pass-rush has them ranked fifth within the league in sacks. Even when pass-rushers do not get to the quarterback, they’ve pressured passers into unhealthy choices which have led to the Patriots pumping up their turnover numbers.

“I do not know what number of interceptions we might have,” Devin McCourty mentioned Wednesday, “with no man within the quarterback’s face.”

 

They’re sixth in DVOA defensively, and rather more efficient in opposition to the go (fifth) than the run (twenty seventh), which in right this moment’s NFL makes them higher within the extra vital aspect. Situationally, they’re common within the crimson zone (56 % touchdowns, seventeenth) they usually’ve had a tough time on third down (43.4 % conversions, fifth-worst). However the work they’ve carried out bothering quarterbacks and producing turnovers has helped maintain them in video games.

If that is who the Patriots are — an opportunistic protection serving to alongside an offense that tends to shoot itself within the foot — it will not be sufficient to make them severe contenders come January. However their saving grace is that there’s time for them to vary course, even when they did not make any additions on the deadline to assist them in that regard… 

My first thought is this implies the Patriots could not discover a taker for Nelson Agholor, who made essentially the most sense as a candidate to be traded. I would not learn into the workforce’s inactivity as Belichick displaying help for the roster as presently constructed. He mentioned as a lot Wednesday: “Properly we’re at all times trying to enhance. We added a pair follow squad gamers this week. So, it might be arduous for me to say there would not be any roster modifications between now and the top of the yr. I feel that might be a stretch, however I do not know, who is aware of? We’ll see the way it goes.”

They’re arduous to seek out, Trygve. There is a purpose these guys are so extremely coveted within the draft. There is a purpose they’re so extremely paid in the event that they get to the open market. There is a purpose they command huge asking costs in trades. Ain’t many people on the planet who can mirror the freakish athletes taking part in on the sting lately.

Simply have a look at the 2022 draft: three defensive ends had been taken within the top-five picks, and three offensive tackles went within the high 10; 5 complete at every place had been taken within the first spherical. As a result of the Patriots took a sort out a number of years in the past within the first spherical and he by no means ended up turning right into a franchise cornerstone? That is why they nonetheless need assistance there. They’re truly lucky in some respects since Trent Brown has labored out the way in which he has.

They did not have to surrender a lot to get him, and when he is proper he is among the many greatest within the league. However proper sort out has been an issue all yr, and there are not many apparent options on the horizon.

I’d give it a shot, John, as long as Yodny Cajuste is in good situation. Marcus Cannon was a wanted pickup once they acquired him, however these final couple of weeks, he is been overwhelmed by higher athletes on the sting. He led the workforce in pressures allowed Sunday in Jersey. Primarily based on how Ted Johnson described the sample he recognized on “The Breakdown” this week, possibly Cannon’s points are on account of foot quickness. If Cannon is aware of he must aggressively get out of his stance and virtually over do it with a purpose to beat his man to the sting, which will make him prone to inside strikes.

 

He was overwhelmed to the within on Monday Night time Soccer when engaged on Robert Quinn, and it occurred Sunday in opposition to John Franklin-Myers (on the roughing-the-passer name which will have saved the sport for the Patriots). Cajuste will not be a panacea for that place. He solely performed in two video games final yr and allowed a stress each 9 dropbacks. Nonetheless, if he is bodily proper, and if he is holding up in follow, possibly the Patriots ought to give him a go. They may nonetheless use Cannon as an additional blocker within the run sport, the place he is been used extensively as a blocking tight finish of late.

This is how you recognize we have the very best (and in some methods sickest, let’s be actual) readers on the Web. Offensive line questions for days. However that is the place the issues are for this Patriots workforce. You all realize it. They realize it, too. They would not have made the transfer to usher in Cannon within the first place in the event that they did not agree with you. Proper now, they rank twentieth within the NFL in pass-blocking effectivity, in keeping with Professional Soccer Focus. Not among the many dregs of the league, by any means, however not adequate for the place they need to be, both.

Shifting Mike Onwenu is an choice for them. He is performed loads of proper sort out for them earlier than, and it is gone effectively sufficient to anticipate that that may proceed. However then what do you do at proper guard? That is been one of many few spots alongside the road that hasn’t gone by way of a tough patch this season. Onwenu has been large.

Patriots Speak: Mac Jones’ triumphant return to the Patriots? Kinda | Listen & Subscribe | Watch on YouTube

Ought to he be uprooted with a purpose to ameliorate the scenario at one place simply to make one other worse? When David Andrews returns from his concussion, James Ferentz will be the high inside flex participant. So is a line of Brown, Cole Unusual, Andrews, Ferentz and Onwenu higher than a line of Brown, Unusual, Andrews, Onwenu and Cannon (or Isaiah Wynn, or Cajuste)? That is what Invoice Belichick has to contemplate as he seems to be for solutions up entrance.

It is also price questioning if Isaiah Wynn may play proper guard. He performed left guard in opposition to the Jets, and we all know he is performed left and proper sort out, with various levels of success. Would shifting Onwenu to proper sort out after which kicking Wynn to proper guard — primarily swapping your Week 1 starters at these positions — make the Patriots higher? Wynn practiced final week as a backup left guard, but it surely’s unclear at this level how a lot work he is seen on the proper aspect alongside the inside. We’ll do some digging…

Let the o-line questions roll, individuals! Peter, arduous to understand how issues will look come the offseason, however here is an inventory of gamers scheduled to hit free company at offensive sort out (other than Wynn and Cajuste), who may find yourself being dear targets for his or her subsequent groups: Orlando Brown, Jack Conklin, Kelvin Beachum, Trey Pipkins, Jawaan Taylor, Yosh Nijman, Cam Fleming, Mike McGlinchey and Elgton Jenkins. Of that group, the one three who’ve graded as top-50 tackles, in keeping with PFF? Conklin (18th), Taylor (twenty third) and Nijman (twenty ninth).

 

I feel so, QS. Their tight-ends aren’t precisely difference-makers as run-blockers — neither Hunter Henry nor Jonnu Smith rank contained in the top-50 tight ends in that class — and that is the place the Patriots needed to lean on extra this yr as they transitioned away from utilizing a fullback.

Moreover, they’re simply twentieth in speeding DVOA, per Soccer Outsiders. They clearly have a gifted again in Rhamondre Stevenson. He will get what’s obtainable to him and extra.

For stretches of this season, although, there hasn’t been a lot made obtainable to him by way of house previous to being contacted. Bear in mind, Stevenson himself has mentioned he prefers to function with no fullback. So possibly in the event you had been to drop one other participant into the backfield with Stevenson, he would not be the again he is been this yr. However there’s clear room for enchancment within the operating sport in relation to the blocking Stevenson will get, and I ponder how a fullback might assist issues.

He ain’t going anyplace for some time, in keeping with Mark Davis. However I would must suppose that the sunshine would at all times be on for McDaniels right here, regardless that the offense has transitioned sharply away from a system that McDaniels helped construct up over twenty years.

I get it, Brian. It has been a bizarre few weeks for everybody. Bye week is simply across the nook, my pal.

All of them? As we have laid out, the offensive line would nonetheless be a difficulty. However it’d assist, no query. Having a bail-out participant like that modifications an offense. A participant like that modifications how a protection performs and opens issues up for others. A participant like that opens issues up for the operating sport. He is a power multiplier.

Whereas DeVante Parker (and maybe Tyquan Thornton if Parker misses time with a knee damage) may also help them threaten areas of the sphere they could not threaten final yr, he is nonetheless not on the extent of the gamers you point out there. With Jakobi Meyers and Nelson Agholor now not beneath contract after this season, I would anticipate the Patriots to proceed to take a position there.

Expertise at that place is extra widespread than ever so maybe they will run right into a No. 1 with out taking one the place somebody like Ja’Marr Chase was taken (No. 5 general, 2021).

Laborious to know, CP. Did not essentially appear to be communication points the opposite day. Only a powerful bodily matchup for the rookie.

 

The Patriots ought to win this one considerably handily, for my part. However I felt the identical manner a few weeks in the past when Chicago got here to city. Preview, with a rating prediction, coming later this week.

Actually unhealthy. I do not see it occurring. I imagine they made a option to roll with Jones as their starter. That mentioned, if the turnovers are available waves early on, I would by no means say by no means with Belichick. He cannot stand giveaways, which is form of why we’re at this level within the first place, with Patriots followers questioning whether or not or not the workforce’s starter may get benched.

Agholor. He performed 19 snaps to Bourne’s 54 in opposition to the Jets.

How the flip tables, Cyrus.