NFL Week 18 picks towards the unfold: Vic Tafur’s predictions
Justin Fields, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Russell Wilson, Jacoby Brissett, Tom Brady, Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes. Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts, Marcus Mariota, Trey Lance …
It’s been a document yr. When Sam Howell and Nathan Peterman begin on Sunday, that may make for 66 completely different beginning quarterbacks within the NFL this season. Based on the NFL, that marks essentially the most beginning QBs in a single season in league historical past, excluding the 1987 strike season. Guess you didn’t respect that you simply have been part of that magic.
Jimmy Garoppolo, Daniel Jones, Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Jared Goff, Aaron Rodgers, Baker Mayfield, Mac Jones, Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford, Lamar Jackson, Jameis Winston, Geno Smith, Mitch Trubisky, Davis Mills, Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins, Cooper Rush …
Eleven quarterbacks have performed in all of their group’s video games, whereas each the Rams and Cardinals have used 4 starters. Baker Mayfield has began for each the Panthers and Rams, whereas magician/Cardinals quarterback David Blough turned the primary participant to star in two “Laborious Knocks” collection in a single yr (due to his preseason stint with the Lions).
Brian Hoyer, Taylor Heinicke, Teddy Bridgewater, Andy Dalton, Deshaun Watson, PJ Walker, Colt McCoy, Kyle Allen, Bailey Zappe, Trevor Siemian, Joe Flacco, John Wolford, Bryce Perkins, Tyler Huntley, Sam Darnold, Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett, Mike White, Sam Ehlinger, Brock Purdy, Jeff Driskel, Desmond Ridder, Brett Rypien, Gardner Minshew, Trace McSorley, Nick Foles, Joshua Dobbs, Skylar Thompson, David Blough, Jarrett Stidham, Nathan Peterman, Sam Howell.
What does all of this need to do with us? Most of those guys stink and I suppose it’s another excuse why it’s powerful to choose winners towards the unfold. (Absolutely, it’s not me …)
I did go 3-1 with one of the best bets final week so we now have an out of doors shot of ending above .500 there. We’re rolling with 4 underdogs, the Browns over the Steelers, Rams over the Seahawks, Lions over the Packers and Commanders over the Cowboys
Final week: 8-7 towards the unfold.
Season document: 117-133-5 ATS (Performs of the week have been 3-1 final week and 23-26-3 general)
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the decide was made. Click here for stay odds.
What a end to the season for Jarrett Stidham. The fourth-year quarterback makes his first NFL begin and throws for 365 yards towards the vaunted 49ers protection, and now will get a nationally televised showcase towards the Chiefs. Did we point out he’s a free agent this spring?
Stidham’s 10 dropbacks out of the pocket have been a season excessive for the Raiders. Josh McDaniels didn’t like Derek Carr like that. Stidham was 5-for-7 for 120 yards, two TDs, two first downs and nil sacks on these performs. Josh Jacobs and/or rookie Zamir White will proceed to assist take the stress off of Stidham.
The Chiefs, although, will have the ability to as soon as once more outscore the Raiders. Patrick Mahomes — even if he is struggling with mechanical issues — can throw on the Raiders’ secondary, a lot much less everyone else, and the Chiefs will have the ability to run on the Raiders after that protection misplaced linebacker Denzel Perryman.
The decide: The Chiefs by no means blow out groups anymore. Raiders +9.5
GO DEEPER
Derek Carr fiasco a far cry from Unitas, Peyton or even Matt Ryan: Sando’s Pick Six
The Titans have misplaced six video games in a row and might nonetheless punch their playoff ticket with a win right here. That’s fairly unbelievable. The Jaguars put up 36 factors within the groups’ first assembly and Trevor Lawrence has caught fire because the Jaguars have gained 5 of six video games down the stretch. The Titans have been lacking a number of defensive starters that day, however they’re again and Jaguars left sort out Cam Robinson is out this time.
Apparently, I’m a sucker for Mike Vrabel and the toughness that he has instilled in his group over time. In fact, selecting the Titans means I’m riding with Joshua Dobbs at quarterback. However he’s a lot warmed up. Final week, with Dobbs beginning, the Titans handed on 58.8 % of early down performs within the first 28 minutes as operating again Derrick Henry was resting up for this sport.
The Jaguars rank third in stress fee (36.9 %) however twenty eighth in sack fee (5.1 %), so there may be some hope for Dobbs. Final week, towards the Cowboys, he was 6-for-17 for 93 yards, no touchdowns, one interception, two sacks and 4 first downs when pressured.
The decide: Titans +6.5
The playoff-bound Buccaneers should not going to relaxation their starters as a result of Tom Brady doesn’t wish to tarnish the league’s aggressive spirit. That doesn’t imply that he’ll play the entire sport, although. This level unfold is due to this fact wonky, however the Buccaneers aren’t actually that good with their starters, so we’ll take the Falcons and the factors. You want to listen to that Arthur Smith has total buy-in whenever you take a house underdog within the last week.
Plus, the Bucs are doubtless relieved to have gained their division final week and would possibly simply take a giant exhale.
By the way in which, Brady leads the NFL in completions (477) and makes an attempt (716) for the second season in a row. Earlier than coming to Tampa, he’d by no means led the league in completions and solely as soon as earlier than led the league in makes an attempt (516 in 2017). He has also taught the Bucs something. If he performs in Las Vegas subsequent season, he can get a senior-citizen line cross on the buffets and magic exhibits.
The decide: Falcons -4
It’s inconceivable to foretell how the Bills will bounce again from that terrible scene on Monday evening, although there was great news about Damar Hamlin’s restoration. The Patriots, while the defense can be tough on certain days, have fallen brief all season lengthy towards high groups.
The decide: Payments -7
GO DEEPER
Bills’ Hamlin making ‘remarkable recovery,’ communicating by writing
Nathan Peterman behind a really dangerous offensive line. That doesn’t sound like a successful components, with the Bears taking a knee and resting Justin Fields, and for us successful means dropping by fewer than eight factors.
Chase Claypool, whom the Bears traded a second-round decide for, gained’t be a lot assist. There have been 111 receivers who’ve run 90-plus routes since Week 9 when the Bears acquired Claypool. Amongst that group, Claypool ranks seventy fifth in yards per route run (1.12), 104th in yards per goal (4.8) and 104th in first downs per goal (21.7 %).
The Vikings, although, could decide they don’t have anything to play for, as the one manner they will declare the No. 2 seed within the NFC is that if the 49ers lose to Blough and the Cardinals within the afternoon window. Plus, the Vikings haven’t coated in 4 straight video games after they have been attempting and Justin Jefferson now has a factor that apparently can slow him down.
(Flips a coin.)
The decide: Vikings -7.5
Lamar Jackson (knee) missed his thirteenth straight follow and John Harbaugh gained’t even take questions on a attainable return date anymore. That’s not good. Since Week 13, when Jackson exited together with his damage, the Ravens rank 22nd in third-down conversion rate (33.9 %) regardless of being tenth in common distance to go on third down (6.4).
It’s onerous to know the way the Bengals will bounce again from Monday’s canceled sport, however it doesn’t appear to be the Ravens protection will decelerate Joe Burrow or that the Ravens offense can sustain. And it looks as if Zac Taylor is the best coach to get them to place their greatest foot ahead.
The decide: Bengals -7
GO DEEPER
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Speak about stress. The Bears are resting Fields, so the Texans need to lose right here to safe the No. 1 decide within the draft. No extra humorous enterprise, Lovie Smith!
Smith has achieved a great job this season. The Texans have misplaced by a median of 11.08 factors per sport, in contrast with 17.15 factors per sport final season. Smith’s protection ranks 14th in factors allowed per drive (1.87) — final season, it was twenty seventh (2.39).
The Texans haven’t gained a house sport all season, and Sunday is not any time to begin. Let Sam Ehlinger make some performs, wink, and never solely will you get the primary decide, however you additionally could persuade the Colts to deliver again the overwhelmed Jeff Saturday for an additional season.
The decide: Colts -2.5
The Dolphins nonetheless have playoff hopes, regardless of having misplaced 5 video games in a row. Seems there’s a fairly large dropoff from Tua Tagovailoa to Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson. The Dolphins’ explosive cross fee with Tua was 21 %. With Thompson/Bridgewater, it’s 15 %. (Tua’s 21 % would rank first within the NFL, whereas 15 % would rank ninth.) Mike McDaniel has to own some of the team’s skid as well.
Mike White is taking part in damage for the Jets, and I’m not positive how good he’s wholesome. He was downgraded to restricted at Thursday’s follow, elevating the potential for one other Zach Wilson begin. Plus, the Jets protection — which has bailed out the offense all season — is having issues stopping the run swiftly.
The decide: Dolphins -2
Brady and the Bucs have been begging to get knocked out of the playoff this season, and these two sorry outfits couldn’t do it. Sam Darnold is taking part in his greatest ball and it’s nonetheless not superb for the Panthers. Plus, the Saints acquired cornerback Marshon Lattimore again final week and he was a giant motive they beat the Jets.
The Panthers’ secondary is so dangerous they’d to herald Josh Norman off the road. They’re twelfth in success fee towards the cross in zone protection (55.8 %) however twenty seventh towards the cross in man protection (51.8 %). And they’re facing a big-time, big-name coaching search regardless of the gamers’ pleas to retain interim coach Steve Wilks.
Andy Dalton could pull a Brady and play until he’s 46, at this fee.
The decide: Saints -3.5
The Steelers have an opportunity to complete with one other successful season underneath Mike Tomlin due to rookie Kenny Pickett main game-winning drives the last two weeks. He’s getting extra out of his improvised performs:
• With three-plus seconds to throw from Weeks 1-10: 5.15 YPA, 20.8% first-down fee, 20.4% sack fee.
• With three-plus seconds to throw since Week 11: 5.53 YPA, 28.4% first-down fee, 9.2% sack fee.
The Browns protection, although, is taking part in its greatest ball of the season. Plus, Deshaun Watson — who made a huge leap last week — is utilizing extra designed runs to assist get him going once more after his suspension, and the Browns would like to play spoiler towards their hated rival.
The decide: Browns +2.5
The Chargers could not play their starters for lengthy, particularly if the Ravens lose within the early window to clinch the No. 5 seed for Los Angeles. So Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack could not get to leap on Russell Wilson an excessive amount of. And the Chargers gained’t blitz as much as they did against the Rams.
Wilson — who may be waiting for Jim Harbaugh to save him — has set a profession excessive for sacks taken (53) regardless of lacking two video games. His sack fee (10.4%) is the second worst of his profession behind solely the 2018 season, when he set his earlier profession excessive of 51 sacks. Wilson has been sacked on 28.8 % of his pressured dropbacks, up from 21.3 % of pressured dropbacks his earlier three years in Seattle.
Austin Ekeler, nonetheless lengthy he performs, and Joshua Kelley ought to run for enough yards to carry off Wilson, who has really performed higher in two of his final three begins.
The decide: Chargers -2.5
Jalen Hurts is nearly assuredly back to knock some rust off, whereas the Giants may not play their starters long as they’re locked into their playoff spot.
The Eagles’ operating sport will clearly get a lift with the return of Hurts. With him, they averaged 2.77 yards earlier than contact per carry, had a 50.6 % success fee and have been operating into containers of eight or extra 37.2 % of the time. With out him, that dropped to 0.95 yards earlier than contact per carry, a 33.9 % success fee and operating into containers of eight or extra 46.9 % of the time.
This quantity has flown as much as 14 factors, which I believe is simply disrespectful to Giants backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor.
The decide: Giants +14
Is there nothing that Brock Purdy can’t do? He even confirmed some nifty strikes to keep away from sacks final week towards the Raiders. The rookie’s 14.9 % sack fee underneath stress is the sixth lowest within the NFL. Purdy leads all QBs in completion fee on third and fourth downs (72.7%) and ranks eleventh in passing success fee in these conditions (43.8%).
That each one stated, the 49ers sleepwalked by way of a win over the Raiders final week, and there’s no motive to assume they gained’t do it once more towards the Cardinals, who they blasted in Mexico earlier this season. Plus, there might be a weak link at cornerback.
Blough for the duvet!
The decide: Cardinals +14
Geno Smith and the Seahawks blew out the Jets final week, with Kenneth Walker III operating wild and Tyler Lockett making a shock early return from his damage. Fifty rookie RBs have rushed 190-plus occasions in a season since 2000. Amongst that group, Walker ranks tenth in explosive run fee (11.1%). There was some dangerous information, because the Seahawks lost talented linebacker Jordyn Brooks.
In the meantime, bear in mind when the Rams have been near chopping Cam Akers for some mysterious motive? He has bounced again and is certainly one of 14 operating backs to hurry 100-plus occasions since Week 11. Amongst that group, he ranks:
• First in success fee (45.7 %)
• Fifth in yards after contact per carry (2.99)
• Fourth in EPA per rush (0.07)
• Second-lowest fee of runs for 0 or destructive yards (12.4%)
Neither of those groups is nice at stopping the run, with the Rams’ defensive line especially in bad shape. However we’ll take Mayfield and the factors in what ought to be a high-scoring sport.
The decide: Rams +6
The Commanders have had a tough month, right down to Ron Rivera not figuring out his group could possibly be eradicated from the playoff race final week and a few accidents to the secondary. Washington is now 0-6 at dwelling in December and January regular-season video games underneath Rivera. No different group has gone winless in these months over the previous three seasons.
Per week after benching Taylor Heinicke for Carson Wentz, Rivera goes with “intriguing” rookie Sam Howell. Howell would possibly get fortunate because the Cowboys have forgotten the right way to sack the quarterback. Dallas’ three sacks since Week 14 rank final within the league. The Cowboys nonetheless rank first in stress fee (44.9%), so it’d simply be dangerous luck. Sorry, Sam.
Excellent news for him, although, is that the Cowboys play right down to their degree of competitors and have a turnovers issue, so the rookie could have an opportunity to drive his group to a win on the finish.
The decide: Commanders +7
One of many issues with how the league arrange this weekend’s video games is that if the Seahawks win, the Lions could have nothing to play for on Sunday evening. Which is a disgrace as a result of their offensive talent gamers and run-defense enchancment has made them a legit group with a lovable, wild coach.
I believe the Seahawks will win … and so will the Lions. It appeared Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have been celebrating per week early — they don’t even think he has to play well now for them to win. And their defensive enchancment could also be a bit of exaggerated. Since Week 13, the Packers protection is twelfth in factors allowed per drive (1.74) and eighth in EPA per drive. From Weeks 1 by way of 12, Inexperienced Bay ranked twenty fourth in factors allowed per drive (2.13) and seventeenth in EPA per drive.
However throughout this present scorching streak, the Packers’ opponents have ranked twelfth (Dolphins), twenty second (Rams), twenty fourth (Vikings) and twenty sixth (Bears) in weighted offensive DVOA.
Did we point out that the Lions are fired up and that Dan Campbell is 14-4 ATS as an underdog of greater than 4 factors?
The decide: Lions +4.5
— TruMedia analysis courtesy of NFL editor Aaron Reiss.
(Graphic: John Bradford / The Athletic; photograph of David Blough: Christian Petersen / Getty Photos)
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