Lions playoff outlook: Detroit’s path to the playoffs, remaining video games, what must occur

The 7-7 Detroit Lions are a rollercoaster, however getting into Week 16 with three video games remaining within the 2022 common season, they’re on the upswing with six wins of their final seven video games and an actual shot at their first playoff look since 2016. Expectations weren’t too excessive within the Motor Metropolis for this season after a 3-13-1 2021 marketing campaign that led them to selecting native son and Michigan defensive finish Aidan Hutchinson second total within the 2022 NFL Draft. Now, the Lions perceive the possibility they’ve to interrupt into the NFL‘s Huge Dance. Based on SportsLine knowledge scientist Stephen Oh, Detroit has a 30.8% likelihood to succeed in the postseason. 

“Now we have a chance, and also you simply do not know when these alternatives are all the time going to be there,” Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell said on Tuesday. “So, we will not let this slip via our fingers. We will not get so uptight with that…the stakes go larger and our temperature has to go down, that is how we have now to deal with it… A man like [offensive tackle Taylor] Decker right here has been right here seven years and been to at least one playoff. Hey man, you do not know. We’re trending the best means, and I imagine we’ll get higher. We’ll be higher yearly, however that does not imply you do not know what sort of alternative you have got, notably the younger guys. You higher maintain on to it, grasp it, us coaches, all of us. Let’s benefit from it.” 

Defensive revival 

Detroit was an offseason darling due to starring on HBO’s “Exhausting Knocks: Coaching Camp with the Detroit Lions” within the preseason, however their protection was an early-season tire fireplace, permitting probably the most factors per sport (32.1) in your complete league via the primary eight weeks. Then, the swap flipped beginning in Week 9: The Lions have 12 takeaways of their final seven video games, which is tied for the third-most within the NFL in that span and trailing solely the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys, every with 13. Detroit has a takeaway in 13 straight video games this season, the longest such streak in your complete league. In consequence, they have been a high 10 scoring protection and are profitable the turnover battle week in and week out. 

Lions this season

W-L	1-6 (Final)	6-1 (T-Third)
Opp PPG	32.1 (Final)	19.9 (eighth)
Rush YPG Allowed	154.9 (thirtieth)	112.0 (Eleventh)
Turnover Differential	-5 (twenty ninth)	+9 (2nd)

“You desire a good protection, you have got to have the ability to sort out and also you higher get takeaways,” Campbell mentioned. “We’re doing these issues proper now, in order that’s a credit score to [defensive coordinator] Aaron Glenn and his workers.” 

One of many issues Glenn and the Lions’ defensive coaches have carried out nicely this season is assist their highly-touted defensive cornerstones start to capitalize on their potential. Cornerback Jeff Okudah, the third total choose within the 2020 NFL Draft out of Ohio State, had a rocky rookie yr in 2020, a yr that wasn’t straightforward for anybody in any stroll of life. In 2022, Okudah has proven some actual indicators of progress, rating 18th within the NFL by way of passing yards per sport allowed, 43.2, amongst 110 gamers with 400 or extra protection snaps.

Hutchinson, the latest second total draft choose and Exhausting Knocks star, has carried over his collegiate manufacturing instantly in Yr 1, main all rookies in sacks with seven and quarterback pressures with 41. He is even snagged a pair interceptions whereas enjoying alongside the road, together with a crucial certainly one of back-to-back NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers within the Lions’ 15-9 Week 9 win in opposition to the Green Bay Packers. Hutchinson can be aided by the event of rookie linebacker James Houston, a sixth spherical choose within the 2022 NFL Draft. His 5 sacks this season are the second-most amongst rookies behind solely Hutchinson himself. 

Aidan Hutchinson this season

Sacks	7.0	1st
QB Pressures	41	1st
Interceptions	2	T-Fifth

Extra factors, extra enjoyable

The Lions have thrived underneath first-year offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, rating as a top-five offense in your complete league throughout the board after rating within the backside 10 a yr in the past underneath former OC Anthony Lynn. 

Lions offense previous two seasons

PPG	19.1  (twenty fifth)	26.4 (Fifth)
Complete YPG	322.6 (twenty second)	375.1 (4th)
Pink Zone TD Pct	46.7% (thirty first)	70.6% (Third)

Two of the larger elements for the offensive success this season are pink zone effectivity and quarterback Jared Goff having time to throw. Detroit is third in pink zone landing proportion, 70.6% in addition to pink zone touchdowns scored, 35. Solely Patrick Mahomes‘ Kansas City Chiefs, 40, and Jalen Hurts‘ Philadelphia Eagles, 36, have scored extra touchdowns within the pink zone. 

Lions operating again Jamaal Williams, well-known for his dancing ability and impassioned “Hard Knocks” speech, is main the pink zone cost with an NFL-best with 14 speeding scores, needing solely three extra within the last three video games to interrupt Corridor of Famer Barry Sanders’ franchise report of 16 speeding touchdowns set in 1991. 13 of his 14 speeding touchdowns have been within the pink zone, most within the NFL, and 10 of them have been on the aim line, additionally probably the most within the NFL. 

Jared Goff was sacked 35 instances in 2021, tied for the Eleventh-most within the NFL however in 2022, Goff has solely been taken down 19 instances, tied for the fifth-fewest within the league with Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady and Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

“It begins up entrance with them for certain, however it’s a aware effort from [offensive coordinator] Ben [Johnson] to not put us in dangerous conditions,” Lions quarterback Jared Goff said on Tuesday. “For myself as nicely to ensure I am eliminating the ball on time, stepping up within the pocket and ensuring I am the place I am purported to be. It is a full staff effort, however it most definitely begins up entrance with these guys doing their job to maintain guys away. It permits me to play fairly freely.” 

Due to the improved safety, Goff has the time to run the performs the place he operates at his highest degree, play-action passes. Goff leads the NFL in play-action passing touchdowns this season with 13, a statistic he led the NFL in with 15 in 2018, the season he made the Super Bowl with the Los Angeles Rams. 

Jared Goff on play motion this season

Go TD	13	1st
Passer Score	118.5	Third

* Made Tremendous Bowl with Los Angeles Rams when main NFL in play-action move TD in 2018

The previous first total choose additionally threw the game-winning 51-yard passing landing to tight finish Brock Wright utilizing play-action within the Lions’ 20-17 street win in Week 15. 

Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson introduced the enjoyable again to the Lions along with the factors this season as he dialed up that very same play however with offensive sort out Penei Sewell lining up out large after which transferring throughout the formation in movement earlier than Goff hit him for a game-icing first down in Detroit’s 34-23 Week 14 win in opposition to the NFC North Champion Minnesota Vikings.

“It [the game-winner to Brock Wright] was the identical play we ran the week earlier than to [offensive tackle] Penei [Sewell], however it was simply completely different individuals in several spots,” Goff mentioned. “We have carried out fairly a little bit of that over the previous couple of weeks, operating comparable performs with completely different individuals in several spots. There’s all the time wrinkles each week for the way we wish to do issues. We discovered a little bit of our id, and it is labored for us.”  

Goff’s union with Johnson has altered his id to that of a top-ten quarterback, much like his degree of play through the Rams’ 2018 Tremendous Bowl run, with three video games to go within the 2022 common season. 

Jared Goff 2018 & 2022 seasons

Go YPG	293.0 (Fifth)	257.4 (ninth)
TD-INT	32-12 (T-Tenth)	23-7 (Fifth)
Passer Score	101.1 (eighth)	97.2 (ninth)

* Made Tremendous Bowl

** Three video games remaining this season

Present playoff place

After 14 video games and 15 weeks of NFL soccer, the Lions (7-7) are slotted because the ninth seed within the NFC, two spots away from the seventh and last playoff spot. Nevertheless, Detroit’s 7-7 report is identical because the staff occupying the eighth spot, the Seattle Seahawks, however Seattle has the head-to-head tiebreaker due to their thrilling 48-45 win on the Lions in Week 4. Each groups path the present seventh-seeded, 7-6-1 Washington Commanders by half a sport. Washington tied the sixth-seeded New York Giants, 8-5-1,  20-20 in Week 13. 

NFC wild card race

5.  Dallas Cowboys*	10-4	4th-hardest
6. Giants	8-5-1	Third-hardest
7. Commanders	7-6-1	T-Seventh-hardest
8. Seahawks	7-7	Twelfth-hardest
9. Lions	7-7	T-2nd-easiest
10. Packers	6-8	T-Seventh-hardest

* Clinched playoff berth

Remaining Schedule

The Lions have three video games left within the 2022 common season, and their opponents have a mixed profitable proportion of .333, giving them what’s tied for the second-easiest remaining schedule within the NFL, according to Tankathon. 

After coming away with an exhilarating 20-17 street win on the New York Jets final week, the Lions have a bodily showdown on the Carolina Panthers, a staff that has averaged the Tenth-most speeding yards per sport (137.9) since firing head coach Matt Rhule and changing him with defensive coordinator Steve Wilks in Week 7. 

Following that slugfest, the Lions host the NFC’s worst staff, the 3-11 Chicago Bears, of their common season residence finale. Chicago confirmed super struggle in these two groups first matchup again in Week 10, a 31-30 Lions win on the Bears. Nevertheless, accidents have since beset the Chicago protection, leaving them ripe for a blowout.  

The final sport of the Lions’ common season slate is a rematch with the Packers at Lambeau Area, a staff Detroit defeated 15-9 in Week 9 with Aaron Rodgers tossing three red-zone interceptions. Since Week 10, the Packers offense has change into rather more explosive, averaging 26.6 factors per sport, the ninth-most within the NFL. The important thing improvement within the Inexperienced Bay bounceback has been the awakening of their rookie large receiver Christian Watson, whose eight touchdowns from scrimmage lead the league since Week 10. 

Though, there’s an opportunity the Lions may very well be dealing with Jordan Love as a substitute of Rodgers if the Packers are already eradicated from playoff competition by Week 18. Inexperienced Bay must win back-to-back video games on the Miami Dolphins and at residence in opposition to the Minnesota Vikings, two playoff groups, to ensure that the Week 18 matchup to hold any weight for the house staff.   

The one robust a part of this stretch for the Lions is that two of those three are on the street. Detroit leads the NFL in scoring offense in residence video games, 32.1 factors per sport, however they common 18.7 factors per sport on the street, the Tenth-fewest within the league. Outdoors of the pleasant, domed confines of Ford Area, Goff is a wildly completely different quarterback. Nevertheless, he put collectively a stable efficiency on the street in opposition to the Jets’ top-five scoring protection on the street final week: 252 passing yards, one passing landing, and no interceptions on 23-of-38 passing. 

Jared Goff by location this season

Workforce PPG	32.1 (1st)	18.7 (twenty third)
TD-INT	20-3 (2nd)	3-4 (thirtieth)
Passer Score	106.9 (Third)	82.5 (twenty fifth)

* QB ranks out of 35 certified passers

What must occur

If Detroit takes care of enterprise and goes 3-0 to shut the season, all they want is for the Commanders and Seahawks to every lose another sport. That is fairly more likely to happen in Week 16 for the reason that Seahawks play the 11-3 Kansas Metropolis Chiefs, and the Commanders play the 10-4 San Francisco 49ers. The Lions do not really want a lot assist to change into the primary staff for the reason that 1970 Cincinnati Bengals to make the playoffs after starting a season with one-or-fewer wins of their first seven video games. Making the playoffs after beginning 1-6 would additionally make them the fourth staff to succeed in the postseason after being 5 video games underneath .500 at any level in a season.

5+ video games under .500 and finally made playoffs
Since 1970 AFL/NFL Merger

2020 Washington	2-7	7-9
2014 Panthers	3-8-1	7-8-1
1970 Bengals	1-6	8-6

* 2022 Lions: 7-7 after 1-6 begin

“Look, I confirmed them the place we’re at, they know precisely the place we’re within the standings, and we all know what’s in entrance of us, all of it begins with this one [Week 16 at the Panthers],” Campbell mentioned. “This staff [Carolina] has an id, they’ll attempt to bully us. Now we have to have the ability to take in it and reply again. 

Nevertheless, if Detroit slips up as soon as and goes 2-1 to conclude the season, they would wish each Seattle and Washington to lose two of their last three. The Lions are primarily in a win-and-in playoff state of affairs, giving them a yellow-brick street to waltz again to the postseason for the primary time since 2016. All they must do is simply maintain profitable.