UFC 281 predictions — Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira: Combat card, odds, prelims, preview, professional picks

A ghost from Israel Adesanya’s previous returns at UFC 281 on Saturday evening. Adesanya defends his UFC middleweight champion in opposition to Alex Pereira, a vicious striker who defeated Adesanya twice within the kickboxing circuit and stays the one individual in fight sports activities to knock him out. A narrative-rich headliner for the promotion’s return to Madison Sq. Backyard in New York Metropolis.

Adesanya, armed with a elegant and stifling putting sport, builds his case as the best middleweight of all time with every profitable title protection. Adesanya will take a look at the standard of his kickboxing sport in opposition to arguably the one fighter who can meet or exceed it, former two-division Glory kickboxing champion Pereira.

Adesanya fought his strategy to the UFC interim middleweight and undisputed middleweight titles in his sixth and seventh UFC fights, respectively. A feat value celebrating, however one eclipsed by Pereira’s accelerated rise via the ranks. A primary-round KO of Sean Strickland at UFC 276 rewarded Pereira with a top-five rating and a UFC title shot in simply his fourth combat with the promotion. Adesanya — having defeated Anderson Silva, Robert Whittaker (twice), Yoel Romero, Paulo Costa, Marvin Vettori (twice) and Jared Cannonier — welcomes a tough problem.

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With a lot occurring on Saturday evening, let’s take a more in-depth take a look at the complete combat card with the newest odds from Caesars Sportsbook earlier than we get to our workers predictions and picks for the PPV portion of the festivities.

UFC 281 combat card, odds

Odds by way of Caesars Sportsbook

• Israel Adesanya (c) -210 vs. Alex Pereira +175, middleweight championship
• Weili Zhang -340 vs. Carla Esparza (c) +270, ladies’s strawweight championship
• Dustin Poirier -230 vs. Michael Chandler +190, light-weight
• Chris Gutierrez -220 vs. Frankie Edgar +170, bantamweight
  
• Dan Hooker -155 vs. Claudio Puelles +130, light-weight
• Renato Moicano -125 vs. Brad Riddell +105, light-weight
  
• Dominick Reyes -220 vs. Ryan Spann +180, gentle heavyweight
  
• Erin Blanchfield -400 vs. Molly McCann +310, ladies’s flyweight
  
• Andre Petroski -200 vs. Wellington Turman +170, middleweight
  
• Silvana Gomez Juarez -115 vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz -105, ladies’s strawweight
  
• Choi Seung-woo -165 vs. Michael Trizano +140, featherweight
  
• Ottman Azaitar -135 vs. Matt Frevola +115, light-weight
  
• Montel Jackson -200 vs. Julio Arce +170, bantamweight
  
• Carlos Ulberg -135 vs. Nicolae Negumereanu +115, gentle heavyweight

With such a large predominant occasion on faucet, the crew at CBS Sports activities went forward with predictions and picks for the primary card. Listed here are your choose makers: Brent Brookhouse (Fight sports activities author), Brian Campbell (Fight sports activities author, co-host of “Morning Kombat”), Shakiel Mahjouri (author), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Smart (senior editor).

UFC 281 picks, predictions

Adesanya (c) vs. Pereira	Adesanya	Pereira	Adesanya	Adesanya	Adesanya
Esparza (c) vs. Zhang	Zhang	Zhang	Zhang	Zhang	Zhang
Poirier vs. Chandler	Chandler	Poirier	Poirier	Poirier	Poirier
Edgar vs. Gutierrez	Gutierrez	Gutierrez	Gutierrez	Edgar	Gutierrez
Hooker vs. Puelles	Hooker	Puelles	Hooker	Hooker	Hooker
Data up to now (2022)	29-24	29-24	27-26	26-27	32-21

Adesanya vs. Pereira

Campbell: For nearly as good because the backstory is of Pereira having twice defeated Adesanya in kickboxing, together with as soon as by brutal knockout, the variations between the 2 as combined martial arts cannot be forgotten. Sure, Pereira has scary energy in each fingers however he is additionally nonetheless so extremely inexperienced as an MMA fighter with simply seven professional fights, together with three within the Octagon. The specter of Pereira’s putting ought to produce a targeted Adesanya who is able to counter always, in contrast to the extra unfastened, level fighter he has develop into of late when contenders aren’t keen to go for broke in opposition to him. Pereira must be lots keen, which is able to imply Adesanya have to be at his highest. However the deeper the combat goes, the extra unknown questions emerge for Pereira, together with every little thing from his stamina and floor sport to his skill to make changes. 

Brookhouse: Regardless of Pereira having two kickboxing wins over Adesanya, Adesanya is the higher striker on a technical degree. Pereira is likely one of the pound-for-pound heaviest hitters within the sport, although, and somebody who’s going to be unwilling to permit Adesanya to sit down again and level combat. The thoughts video games may additionally come into play, although I imagine that might be one thing that results in Adesanya seeking to “make a degree” reasonably than changing into gunshy. The issue I see for Adesanya is that partaking in putting is uniquely harmful for him on this combat. Sure, he’s higher technically, however MMA gloves not solely result in more durable pictures from Pereira but in addition to extra problem in defending in opposition to these pictures coming at you. An Adesanya win is the extra possible end result, however this feels just like the sort of combat the place the challenger has a effectively above common likelihood of pulling off the upset. It solely takes one shot from Pereira to finish this combat whereas Adesanya needs to be on level always.

Mahjouri: It appears like a while since siding with Adesanya required such warning. Pereira has the extra highly effective kickboxing and is brimming with confidence having defeated Adesanya in two earlier kickboxing matches. Adesanya is the extra elusive striker, using feints, footwork and counterattacks that disarm most opponents. Pereira has confirmed much more hittable within the Octagon to this point, which ought to work to the champion’s benefit. On the floor, Pereira’s KO of Adesanya of their second kickboxing combat is regarding. A full watch via of that combat, nevertheless, reveals that Adesanya was having his manner with Pereira earlier than the end. An Adesanya determination win or Pereira KO appears most probably, let’s facet with the previous.

Esparza vs. Zhang

Campbell: Not often earlier than has a two-time champion using a six-fight win streak been this aggressively dismissed by seemingly everybody heading right into a title protection. However whether or not it is truthful or not that followers proceed responsible Esparza for the way boring her title victory over Rose Namajunas was of their Could rematch, few predict her to exit the Octagon nonetheless sporting her 115-pound belt. The reason being largely due to how significantly better Zhang has appeared to have gotten as a fighter since dropping her title to Namajunas. Zhang, the primary Chinese language-born UFC champion, rebuilt her physique and improved her wrestling abilities sufficient to see oddsmakers set up her as almost a 4-1 favourite. Contemplating 4 of Esparza’s six current wins featured disputed scoring, Zhang seems to be the good choose for good motive.

Mahjouri: Zhang is a powerhouse amongst strawweights. Few within the division rival her skill to land crushing blows. She definitely has the putting edge in opposition to Esparza however so do many of the prime contenders. A look at Zhang’s 60% takedown protection is regarding, however I anticipate her coaches have put a variety of emphasis on her wrestling to pair together with her bodily power. (Hopefully) improved wrestling, pure power and head-rattling energy ought to lead Zhang to victory.

Poirier vs. Chandler

Campbell: While you threat all of it from the opening bell for the primary 5 minutes of each combat, you’re going possible win simply as a lot as you lose. Chandler’s thrilling 2-2 run since making his UFC debut final yr appears to assist that. However the former three-time Bellator MMA champion’s blitzkrieg strategy may also be his finest likelihood at attending to the chin of Poirier, whose accumulation of injury over an unbelievable profession will someday catch as much as him. Even when Chandler follows via on his risk to play it safer than regular (by wrestling) given {that a} title shot could possibly be in play for the winner, the fireworks followers anticipate ought to nonetheless be there ultimately. Chandler almost knocked out then-champion Charles Oliveira in 2021 and seems poised for a potential second run on the belt.

Brookhouse: Sure, the logic that “someday” Poirier could lose all punch resistance is cheap. However there is no proof that that day has come. Chandler, in the meantime, has a notoriously crackable chin, particularly for somebody who fights within the model that he does. It nonetheless appears like a minor miracle that he made it to the scorecards in opposition to Justin Gaethje. Chandler was dropped by a badly light Tony Ferguson and simply will get hit too cleanly, too typically to choose him in opposition to somebody with the precision and general gameplan of Poirier. Chandler at all times has the very definition of a “puncher’s likelihood” however his higher path to victory could also be to be a wrestler first, striker second. I do not see him following via on that plan as soon as Poirier begins to land. Chandler possible goes proper to his behavior of overly partaking with wild strikes that may go away him open to crisp pictures from Poirier earlier than a stoppage.

Who wins Adesanya vs. Pereira? And the way precisely does every combat finish? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on every fight at UFC 281, all from the incomparable professional who’s up greater than $13,000 on MMA prior to now three years, and discover out.