4 attainable Georgia election evening outcomes and what they inform us about our present politics – WABE

Elections at all times inform a narrative, not simply who wins and loses, however why voters select the candidates they do and what that claims concerning the citizens at that second.   

After masking this election for a yr, the WABE politics staff unpacks 4 attainable situations and what they might inform us about Georgia politics. 

Final result risk 1: Republicans win Senate and governor and maintain each constitutional workplace down poll

Republican Gov. Brian Kemp’s marketing campaign would get a whole lot of credit score for not solely defeating a challenger backed by former President Donald Trump within the main — David Perdue — but in addition beating a succesful and well-funded rival in Democrat Stacey Abrams.

Kemp’s victory possible helped pull different GOP candidates over the end line, propelling him right into a second time period with extra political capital than ever earlier than. 

An enormous evening for the GOP would additionally present that Georgia stays a Republican-leaning state and Democrats’ wins in 2020 and the 2021 runoffs didn’t usher within the new period in Georgia politics that Democrats had been hoping for. 

This additionally possible implies that inflation, the financial system and crime weighed extra closely for Georgia voters than abortion rights and Medicaid growth. 

In fact, a deeper dive into the numbers would additionally inform us concerning the voters who helped ship Kemp a second time period. Have suburban ladies come again to the social gathering? Is the GOP  making inroads with minority voters? Does Georgia’s GOP stay a celebration of rural voters?

Final result risk 2: The cut up ticket

On this state of affairs, Kemp wins the governor’s mansion and Democratic U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock wins the Senate race.

That might showcase the ability of incumbents and illustrate that voters felt usually happy with these at present in workplace, despite the fact that they symbolize completely different political events. 

It may additionally sign that particular person candidates matter greater than social gathering affiliation for some voters and means that Republican Senate nominee Herschel Walker was a flawed candidate with an excessive amount of baggage for some voters.

A cut up ticket would additionally recommend that Georgia might have much more “unbiased” voters than pollsters predicted.  It’s not clear how down-ballot candidates would do on this state of affairs. Warnock might be the one Democrat to win — or Georgia may find yourself with a combined bag of statewide officers. 

Final result risk 3: Abrams and Warnock win, Democrats prevail down poll  

Georgia would make historical past by electing the primary Black, feminine governor within the nation.

Abrams’ victory could be the top of a decade-long mission to show Georgia blue after years of Republican rule. It will additionally solidify Georgia as a purple battleground and present how the state’s rising and diversifying inhabitants is accelerating Georgia’s tilt towards Democrats.

Regardless of gloomy prospects for Democrats nationwide and President Joe Biden’s struggling approval scores, Abrams’ concentrate on abortion rights might have helped her marketing campaign override not less than some voters’ frustration with inflation and the excessive prices of groceries and fuel. 

A Democratic sweep for statewide workplace would arrange a divided authorities in Georgia, with Republicans more likely to retain management of the state legislature, due partially to partisan gerrymandering. 

Oh, and once more the polls had been improper and Black voter turnout was larger than anticipated. 

Final result risk 4: Runoffs

With Libertarians within the governor and Senate races, in addition to different down-ballot contests, it’s attainable no candidate will get 50% of the vote in some races. And which means runoffs for these workplaces.

This implies Georgians have to vote once more on Dec. 6, with early voting underway together with Thanksgiving vacation prep.

The shortened four-week runoff window is because of Georgia’s new election legislation, which shortened the time from 9 weeks.

Polls recommend the tightest race is the U.S. Senate election. With an evenly-divided U.S. Senate and tossup races throughout the nation, it’s attainable management of the physique may once more come right down to Georgia, because it did final cycle. 

If that occurs, anticipate one other flood of flyers, telephone calls, texts and visits by high-profile politicians and celebrities — and Georgia solidifies its fame as the middle of the political universe.