Colts are cursed in NFL Week 1 video games over the previous eight years
It is the Colts’ Curse.
There isn’t a different reason why the Colts have misplaced eight consecutive openers. There have been seven different groups that misplaced a minimum of seven consecutive openers and we all know why: They had been unhealthy groups. The Colts are over .500 these eight seasons.
The Colts additionally misplaced eight consecutive openers from 1984 ‒ their first season in Indianapolis ‒ by way of 1992. The franchise has the second-worst report in season openers since 1984 … however the Twelfth-best report total. Is there is a witch in Baltimore who’s getting revenge?
Nobody has an evidence however we will break down the weirdest streak within the NFL in 4 charts:
Extra:How the Colts have lost in Week 1 the past 8 years
Season-opener dropping streaks
The Colts enter Sunday’s recreation in Houston with the third-longest dropping streak in season openers in NFL historical past. Crew proprietor Jim Irsay has spoken passionately about successful the opener in recent times, however even he has given up attempting to elucidate it.
“We’re simply sort of targeted this yr on saying, ‘Let’s go play our greatest soccer, let’s get it accomplished,’ as a substitute of me ranting right here for the subsequent 10 minutes. That does not appear to have labored up to now,” stated Irsay, additionally the crew’s most passionate fan, earlier this yr with amusing. “(Coach) Frank (Reich) and (COO) Pete (Ward) and (GM) Chris (Ballard) are like, ‘Can you’re taking a distinct perspective? Don’t say an excessive amount of about it.’ You understand how I really feel in regards to the opener, so I received’t say it. We’re seeking to erase that deficit and begin with a brand new period the place we win our opener beginning in 2022 and hopefully get on a streak this yr.”
Of the seven groups to lose a minimum of 7 consecutive openers, the present Colts are the one franchise to have a successful report over these seasons.
Streak | Crew | Years | Pct. |
13 | Cleveland | 2005-17 | .279 |
9 | Philadelphia | 1968-76 | .313 |
8 | Indianapolis | 1984-91 | .362 |
8 | Indianapolis | 2014-21* | .527 |
8 | Seattle | 1976-83 | .410 |
8 | Oakland | 2003-10 | .289 |
7 | Arizona | 1992-98 | .384 |
Colts’ spreads in openers
That is the yr! Why? As a result of the Colts are 7.5-point favorites in Houston.
Not so quick. The Colts have solely been favored in three of their eight season-opening losses (Jacksonville, 2020; Detroit, 2016; Buffalo, 2015) however they misplaced to Jacksonville in 2020 as a 7-point favourite. It was the one recreation the Jaguars would win all yr.
Utilizing win likelihood based mostly on the unfold, there was solely a .15% probability Indianapolis would lose these eight video games.
Yr | Crew | Unfold |
2021 | Seattle | +3 |
2020 | at Jacksonville | -7 |
2019 | at L.A. Chargers | +6 |
2018 | Cincinnati | +1 |
2017 | at L.A. Rams | +3.5 |
2016 | Detroit | -2.5 |
2015 | at Buffalo | -2.5 |
2014 | at Denver | +7.5 |
Does successful the opener matter?
Ballard took a practical, logical method when requested in regards to the streak final week.
“Win or lose the primary recreation, you’ve received to get to Sport 2 additionally,” he stated. “So, I simply suppose for those who overblow it, like, ‘Oh freak, we misplaced, season is over.’ No, it’s not. We’ve been 1-5 and 1-4 right here and each instances bounced again and gave ourselves an actual alternative (to make the playoffs). You’ve received to play the season out.”
That is, after all, 100% appropriate however …
Successful the opener is predictive. Utilizing pro-football-reference.com’s record finder, 123 of the 494 groups that began the yr 0-1 made the playoffs, simply 24.9%. Greater than twice that quantity ‒ 53.5% ‒ made the playoffs after successful the opener. These odds will shift with the addition of a seventh playoff crew final season however successful the opener is an effective signal for a crew’s playoff hopes. The Colts have made the playoffs 78.6% of the time after successful the opener, 36.0% after dropping.
Gained the opener? | Playoff odds |
Sure | 53.5% |
No | 24.9% |
Not No. 1 after Sport 1
Should you wanted any extra proof this can be a curse, right here it’s. For the reason that Colts moved to Indianapolis in 1984, they’ve the second-worst report in season openers. They’ve the Twelfth greatest report within the NFL since that season nevertheless with a .528 successful proportion, solely Cleveland (.382 vs. .186, -.196) has a worse differential than the Colts’ -.186 mark and no different crew has a distinction of greater than 100 proportion factors.
Crew | Report |
Cleveland | 6-28-1, .186 |
Indianapolis | 13-25, .342 |
Arizona | 14-23-1, .382 |
Carolina | 11-16, .407 |
Tampa Bay | 16-22, .421 |
Cincinnati | 16-22, .421 |
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